Back in July, when a Field Poll was released showing that California Proposition 8 was trailing 51-42 among likely voters, the Election Day outlook for supporters of traditional marriage wasn’t too bright. Two months later, when a mid-September Field Poll showed Prop 8 backers behind 55-38, the outlook turned grim.
So how did supporters of Proposition 8 manage, in a mere seven weeks, to turn a 17-point polling deficit into a five-point Election Day victory? It had even trailed in the final three pre-election polls.
Experts and supporters of Prop 8 – the constitutional amendment which overturned a state Supreme Court ruling and banned “gay marriage” – point to a number of factors, led by three main ones: a solid consistent message about the impact of “gay marriage” on public schools, better-than-expected fundraising and historical cooperation among various religious groups to back the measure and get out the vote.
The 52.5-47.5 percent victory resulted in perhaps the biggest setback yet for the movement to legalize “gay marriage” nationwide – as opponents of Prop 8 acknowledge – and one of the most successful campaigns in the history of the pro-family movement. The day after the election, cities across California, including Los Angeles, already were stopping issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Several lawsuits, led by the ACLU and the city of San Francisco, were filed at the California Supreme Court in an attempt to prevent Prop 8 from taking effect, but the suits appear to be long shots.
Glen Lavy, an attorney with the conservative Alliance Defense Fund, labeled the passage of Prop 8 as “huge” in the effort to stop the spread of “gay marriage” to all 50 states.
“California is the largest state in the country,” he told Baptist Press. “It has more than 12 percent of the U.S. population. And to quote San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, ‘As California goes, so goes the nation.’ I like that at this point.”
In June, one month after the California Supreme Court issued its ruling, a coalition of liberal and homosexual activist groups led by the ACLU and the Human Rights Campaign released a joint statement laying out their strategy for legalizing “gay marriage” nationwide. At the top of the list was defeating Prop 8.
“A loss on the initiative in California – a loss at the hands of voters – would be particularly damaging to work in other state legislatures and other state courts,” the statement said in part. “That makes the California campaign of prime importance.?- Marriage in California will transform the national debate on the freedom to marry. It will do that because the decision is well-reasoned constitutional law from the most influential state court in the nation. It will do that because California is an American trendsetter. But marriage in California will do those things only if we can hold onto it.”
Conservatives now have a record of 30-1 in passing marriage amendments nationwide.
Among the various elements that led to Prop 8’s victory was a consistent message about public schools. About two weeks after a September poll showed them trailing by 17 points, Prop 8 officials ran their first television commercial showcasing Richard Peterson, a professor at Pepperdine University School of Law, listing the implications of “gay marriage” legalization. “People sued over personal beliefs, churches could lose their tax-exemption, gay marriage taught in public schools,” he said. Every remaining TV commercial by the “Yes on 8” campaign mentioned the public school aspect.